How did Americans’ views change over time about the likelihood of the United States entering World War II? Did the questions Gallup asked shape the responses given? What accounts for these shifting views?
Consider the polls before and after Roosevelt’s Lend-Lease proposal on December 17, 1940 and his Arsenal of Democracy Speech on December 29, 1940. To what extent was Roosevelt constrained by these polls? In what respects was he responding to these polls? How was he shaping public opinion? Lend-Lease was approved in March 1941. Consider these same questions for the polls before and after its approval (See Gallup Polls 1941).
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Introduction
In 1935 George Gallup’s American Institute of Public Opinion began publishing public opinion polls based on modern scientific statistical sampling methods. Gallup viewed his polls as a way for the common man to speak directly to the government. His polls received wide distribution in American newspapers, raising questions about how much they influenced subsequent opinions among the public or politicians. Below are some examples of poll data Gallup collected to assess Americans’ views about the European War between January 1940 and January 1941. During this period, President Franklin D. Roosevelt argued that Americans needed to offer economic aid to Britain to prevent Nazi Germany from attacking the United States.
We have edited Gallup’s presentation of the data he collected. In some of his early polls, Gallup calculated the percentages of respondents who declined to answer a particular question as part of the total (100%) of all responses. In other cases, he noted the percentage of “no opinion” responses, yet excluded them from the overall calculation. In the latter cases, we use footnotes to avoid confusion.
—Jennifer Keene
Source: George H. Gallup, The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 1935-1971, Vol. I: 1935-1948 (NY: Random House, 1972), 208, 211, 212, 225, 243, 250, 257, 259, and 262.
January 1940
Do you think our country’s future safety depends on England winning the war?
January 3, 1940
Yes 68%
No 26%
No opinion 6%
If the United States stopped sending war materials to England, do you think England would lose the war?
January 3, 1940
Yes 85%
No 8%
No opinion 7%
If Germany tries to invade England within the next year, do you think she will be successful in conquering England?
January 3, 1940
Yes 11%
No 74%
No opinion 15%
February 1940
Do you think the United States will go into the war in Europe, or do you think we will stay out of the war?
February 16, 1940
Go into war 32%
Stay out 68%
Why do you think the United States will stay out of the European war?
February 16, 1940
The three chief reasons given by those responding that the United States will stay out:
1. The people are overwhelmingly against war and would not stand for American participation.
2. The United States learned its lesson in the last war.
3. The nation would have everything to lose and nothing to gain
If it appears that Germany is defeating England and France, should the United States declare war on Germany and send our army and navy to Europe to fight?1
February 21, 1940
Yes 23%
No 77%
March 1940
If it looked as though England and France would lose the war unless we loaned them money to buy war supplies here, would you favor or oppose lending them money?
March 4, 1940
Favor 55%
Oppose 45%
If Hitler offers to make peace this spring, do you think England and France should meet with the Germans and try to end the war?
March 10, 1940
Yes 75%
No 25%
Do you think now is the right time for the leading nations of the world to have a conference to try to settle Europe’s problems and end the war between Germany and England and France?
March 10, 1940
Yes 58%
No 42%
If such a conference is held, should the United States take part in it?
March 10, 1940
Yes 55%
No 45%
Which side do you want to see win the present war—England and France, or Germany?
March 31, 1940
England & France 84%
Germany 1%
No opinion 15%
May 1940
If you were voting for President, which type of candidate would you be more likely to vote for: (A) A candidate who promises to keep us out of war and refuses to give any more help to England and France, even if they are being defeated by Germany (B) A candidate who promises to keep us out of war, but who is still willing to give England and France all the help they want, except sending our army and Navy?2
May 10, 1940
National Response
Refuses help 34%
Aid except troops 66%
Democrats
Refuses help 32%
Aid except troops 68%
Republicans
Refuses help 36%
Aid except troops 64%
Lower (Income)
Refuses help 37%
Aid except troops 63%
Middle (Income)
Refuses help 34%
Aid except troops 66%
Upper (Income)
Refuses help 28%
Aid except troops 72%
Do you think the United States should increase the size of its armed forces?
May 22, 1940
Yes 90%
No 10%
If England and France are unable to pay cash for airplanes they buy in this country, do you think we should sell them planes on credit supplied by our government?3
May 24, 1940
Yes 51%
No 49%
Congress has set aside two billion dollars for the army, navy, and air forces for the next 12 months. President Roosevelt has now asked Congress to increase this by another one billion dollars. Do you approve or disapprove of this increase?4
May 26, 1940
National Response
Approve 86%
Disapprove 14%
Democrats
Approve 93%
Disapprove 7%
Republicans
Approve 83%
Disapprove 17%
Would you be willing to pay a special tax to cover this increased expenditure?
May 26, 1940
National Response
Yes 76%
No 24%
Lower (Income)
Yes 74%
No 26%
Middle (Income)
Yes 76%
No 24%
Upper (Income)
Yes 80%
No 20%
Do you think the United States should declare war on Germany and send our army and navy abroad to fight?
May 29, 1940
Yes 7%
No 93%
June 1940
Do you think our country’s army, navy, and air forces are strong enough so that the United States is safe from attack by any foreign nation?5
June 2, 1940
Yes 15%
No 85%
Should the United States require every able bodied man who is 20 years old to serve in the army, navy or air force for one year?6
June 2, 1940
National Response
Yes 50%
No 50%
By AGE
21–29 years
Yes 44%
No 56%
30–49 years
Yes 49%
No 51%
50 years & over
Yes 55%
No 45%
21–29 years (men only)
Yes 41%
No 59%
Do you think that the C.C.C. [Civilian Conservation Corps] camps should give military training to every young man in the C.C.C?7
June 2, 1940
Yes 85%
No 15%
If Germany should defeat England and France in the present war, do you think Germany would start a war against the United States sooner or later?8
June 2, 1940
Yes 65%
No 35%
September 1940
Which of these two things do you think is the most important for the United States to try to do—to keep out of war ourselves or to help England win, even at the risk of getting into the war?9
September 23, 1940
National Response
Keep Out 48%
Help England 52%
BY REGION
New England
Keep Out 48%
Help England 52%
Middle Atlantic
Keep Out 48%
Help England 52%
East Central
Keep Out 52%
Help England 48%
West Central
Keep Out 57%
Help England 43%
South
Keep Out 30%
Help England 70%
West
Keep Out 46%
Help England 54%
November 1940
Who do you think will do a better job of strengthening our national defense—Roosevelt or Willkie?10
November 10, 1940
Roosevelt 61%
Willkie 39%
If the United States should get into the war, which man would you prefer to have as President—Roosevelt or Willkie?11
November 10, 1940
Roosevelt 60%
Willkie 40%
Asked in Great Britain: In view of the indiscriminate bombing of this country, would you approve or disapprove if the R.A.F. [Royal Air Force] adopted a similar policy of bombing the civilian population of Germany?
November 15, 1940
Approve 46%
Disapprove 46%
No opinion 8%
If it appears that England will be defeated by Germany and Italy unless the United States supplies her with more food and war materials, would you be in favor of giving more help to England?12
November 18, 1940
Yes 90%
No 10%
January 1941
Which of these two things do you think is more important for the United States to try to do—to keep out of the war ourselves, or to help England win, even at the risk of getting into the war?
January 10, 1941
Keep Out 40%
Help England 60%
If you were asked to vote on the question of the United States entering the war against Germany and Italy, how would you vote—to go into the war, or to stay out of the war?
January 10, 1941
Go In 12%
Stay Out 88%
Do you think it was a mistake for the United States to enter the last World War?
January 10, 1941
Yes 39%
No 42%
No opinion 19%
If the British are unable to pay cash for war materials bought in this country, should our Government lend or lease war materials to the British, to be paid back in the same materials and other goods after the war is over?
January 22, 1941
National Response
Approve 68%
Disapprove 26%
Undecided 6%
Democrats
Approve 74%
Disapprove 20%
Undecided 6%
Republicans
Approve 62%
Disapprove 32%
Undecided 6%
Which of these two things do you think England should do now—try to make the best possible peace now with Germany, or keep on fighting in the hope of defeating Germany?
January 31, 1941
Make peace now 15%
Keep on fighting 79%
No opinion 6%
Footnotes
- 1. Seven percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 2. Nine percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation
- 3. Six percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 4. Five percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 5. Ten percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 6. Seven percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 7. Seven percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 8. Ten percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 9. Five percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 10. Thirteen percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation. Wendall Wilkie (1892–1944) was the Republican challenger to FDR in the 1940 Presidential election.
- 11. Nine percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
- 12. Six percent of respondents had no opinion on this question and are excluded from the overall calculation.
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